Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 135

It can be said that the year-long direct combat with Russia has made the Red Army's defensive tactics increasingly sophisticated, while the Russian army's tactics have remained largely unchanged, seemingly oblivious to the fact that their tactics have completely outmatched the Red Army. This led Wang Rong to suspect that the Russian commanders were plotting something, trying to lull him into a false sense of security before delivering a severe blow.

However, despite his doubts, he calmly told his subordinates, "The Third and Seventh Divisions will be the main attacking forces on Verkhovna Udinsk, while our First Division will be responsible for cutting off Verkhovna Udinsk's connection with Irkutsk and Chita."

The situation in the Chita direction is still relatively calm. However, the forces coming from Irkutsk are growing stronger. Simply holding them off is probably not enough. We should teach them a lesson so that the 3rd and 7th Divisions have more time to deal with Upper Udinsk.

"Since these Russian troops are so fond of charge tactics, I think we should simply abandon the first few lines of defense and lure them directly to the open riverbank near the Selenga Bridge, where we can teach them a lesson with machine guns and artillery..."

Chapter 481 The Attack on Udinsk

On July 18, the Northern Army Group officially launched an offensive against Verkhovna Udinsk. Lan Tianwei commanded the 7th Division of the Red Army to launch the attack from the northwest of the city, which was also the main direction of the Red Army's attack.

Verkhovinsk is located northwest of the confluence of the Selenga and Uda rivers. It has rivers to the south and east, and only the west and north are plains. Therefore, the Russian army has been most diligent in defending the northwest of the city, and fortifications have been built outside the city. However, due to the tight schedule, the fortifications outside the city can only be described as quite crude.

After observing the outer defenses of Verkhovna Udinsk, Lan Tianwei and Cai E decided to open a breach from the northwest, as this was the only direction from which troops could be deployed. The battle began with the roar of 77 cannons.

After the encirclement and annihilation battle at Zhangjiakou and the siege of Novoselenginsk, the Red Army grasped at least one principle: artillery preparation is essential for siege warfare. Although artillery may not be able to clear the enemy's fortifications, it can at least clear some of the obvious defensive works and disrupt the enemy's defensive system, thus removing many obstacles for the infantry offensive.

The 77 artillery pieces of the 7th Division account for nearly 40% of the artillery held by the Northern Group, not including mortars. The Russian forces in the opposite city have less than 40 artillery pieces in total, with no mortars assigned to them. They have deployed about 20 artillery pieces in the northwest, which is only slightly more than a quarter of the 7th Division's artillery.

In the initial artillery exchange, the Russian artillery, having exposed its position, was quickly subjected to barrage from Chinese artillery. The Russian artillery, stubbornly adhering to Russian tactical regulations, easily lost more than ten cannons at the outset of the battle, which directly impacted the subsequent defense of the city.

After the 7th Division's artillery positions fired over 6000 shells in one go, the Russian positions were in ruins, and most of the houses on the northwestern edge of the city were reduced to rubble. Many Russian soldiers on the positions had even begun to flee in secret. Seeing the complete silence of the artillery on the Russian positions, Lan Tianwei finally ordered a halt to the shelling and the commencement of the infantry offensive.

Jiang Weiping and his advance assault company waited about 2 kilometers northwest of the city. After receiving orders, he led his men to charge towards the enemy positions, which were still shrouded in smoke. There were at least seven or eight such advance assault companies, forming a fan-shaped attack front in the northwest of the city. Behind them were ordinary infantry companies, ready to continue the attack into the city after they broke through the defenses.

Jiang Weiping quickly discovered that the nearly one-hour artillery preparation was indeed effective. The enemy's first line of defense encountered almost no resistance. When they rushed close, the Russian soldiers on the line of defense had already begun to turn around and run away. Only a few people were still able to pick up their guns and shoot at them, but these people were quickly shot or killed by grenades.

On the second line of defense, the Russian army finally organized resistance, but this resistance varied in strength. In areas where the defenses were better preserved, the Russian resistance was more complete, while in areas ravaged by artillery fire, the resistance was much weaker. Faced with this situation, Jiang Weiping quickly targeted the weaker areas of the enemy's defenses, ordered his men to approach the line, and then threw grenades.

Although the second line of defense was a relatively complete one built by the Russian army, it was just a trench about half a person's height plus a breastwork made of excavated black soil piled up beside the trench. Although it could conceal the Russian soldiers, the trench was almost straight, which meant that as long as shells and grenades were thrown into the trench, they could blow up a large area, and the soldiers inside the trench would have nowhere to hide.

When Jiang Weiping led his men into the trenches, a breach was quickly torn in the Russian defenses. Similar breaches then appeared along other lines, and soon the second Russian line of defense collapsed. The Russians had only deployed two lines of defense around the city, and in less than four hours, both had fallen to the Chinese, completely exposing the city's perimeter.

The Russian troops within the city began to panic even more. Some officers even started attacking each other during military meetings, trying to shift the blame for the inadequate defense of the city's outskirts onto others. Faced with the officers' arguments at the meeting, Colonel Krochaev's face turned ashen, but he was helpless. After all, he was just a colonel from a remote region, while many of the officers here came from Europe, some even from St. Petersburg. How could he suppress them? Saying too much would only make it easier for these officers to unite and blame him. Colonel Ivanov from Chita refused to speak anymore.

Colonel Krochaev had his own opinion on why the outer defenses were so easily breached by the Chinese. He believed the main reason was that Verkhovdinsk lacked a figure who could truly coordinate the overall situation.

Commander Kharchenko was nominally in charge of the overall situation, but he had only a superficial understanding of military affairs and lacked the determination to reorganize the army. Colonel Moisev, who was captured, and Colonel Ivanov were nominally Kharchenko's military aides, but none of the three of them were actually authorized by St. Petersburg to handle military matters, which made none of them willing to take on too much responsibility.

Even if the Chinese attacked the Verkhovna Udinsk region, winning the battle would not bring much merit. It would only lessen the blame for the officials of the Verkhovna Udinsk region, because no Russian would believe that the Chinese were capable of invading Russian territory unless the local officials were really too incompetent.

Even though the Russian army suffered repeated setbacks against the Chinese in the Manchurian campaign, these were setbacks in Russian attacks within Chinese territory. The Russian army had never encountered an offensive initiated by the Chinese. What truly made the Russians anxious was the Japanese, after all, Japan had achieved an undisputed victory in the naval battles, even though the Japanese had joined the war through a surprise attack.

It can be said that the denigration of China and Japan by Russian public opinion in the past was so deeply ingrained that even when the Russian army suffered heavy losses in Manchuria, the first reaction of the Russian people was not that China and Japan were too powerful, but that Russia had become too weak under the rule of corrupt bureaucrats, and could not even defeat such weak China and Japan.

This explains why, when news of the fall of Vladivostok and the destruction of the Second Pacific Fleet reached Europe, the Russian people did not erupt in hatred towards Japan, but instead directed their hatred towards St. Petersburg. The Russian people did not believe that Russia's defeat was due to its military inability to defeat China and Japan, but rather that it was primarily a political failure, a result of an incompetent group of ministers leading Russia and causing such humiliation.

In this climate of sentiment, holding Verkhovdinsk was seen as the duty, and failing to do so was considered utterly cowardly. This is why the generals of Irkutsk and Chita refused to appear in Verkhovdinsk; they feared becoming scapegoats after the war. This pessimistic mindset also influenced Colonel Krochaev and Colonel Ivanov, especially after Colonel Moisev's capture and the military tribunal's absent trial of him, which further discouraged them from taking responsibility.

Even though the Chinese have now broken through the outer defenses of Verkhovdinsk, Colonel Krochaev, after much deliberation, still decided to make everyone share the responsibility. Stepping forward to make a decision at this point would be no different from standing in the dock of a military court after the war.

Because St. Petersburg would never admit that the Chinese conquered Verkhovna Udinsk through their own strength, the only explanation for this disastrous outcome must be a misjudgment by the military commander responsible for defending Verkhovna Udinsk. The Tsar couldn't possibly admit that his own folly led to this foolish war, and that his brilliant plan to seize Manchuria and Outer Mongolia from the weak Chinese to establish Yellow Russia was a direct result of his own ingenious scheme.

Ultimately, no adjustment plan was made at the meeting. Colonel Krochaev and Colonel Ivanov both advocated that everyone should do their job and fulfill their responsibilities. After all, they still had nearly 30,000 troops in the city. As long as everyone fought to the death, how could the Chinese easily break into the city?

As for whether Verkhovna Udinsk could hold out, everyone placed their hopes on God and St. Petersburg. However, it was clear that God had not heard their prayers, and St. Petersburg was now powerless. After news of the defeat at the Battle of Mukden reached Europe, workers and peasants in Odessa revolted in late June, and Black Sea Fleet warships were dispatched to suppress the uprising.

The Potemkin was embroiled in a mutiny by sailors inspired by the workers' and peasants' movement, and the officer most hated by the sailors was hanged.

This was the first time since the establishment of the Romanov dynasty that the Tsar's army had risen up against his rule. The only problem was that when the sailors on the Potemkin arrived in Odessa and attempted to contact the striking workers to launch an uprising against the monarchy, they did not receive the support of the Social Democratic Labour Party committee that was leading the general strike.

Because the Mensheviks held a majority on the committee, they did not intend to oppose the monarchy, but rather demanded that the Tsar implement a constitutional monarchy. At this critical moment, the Mensheviks betrayed the sailors who were driving the revolution, allowing the Tsarist government to mobilize troops and storm the port, severing the connection between the sailors and the workers.

The workers' and peasants' uprising in Odessa lacked a guiding revolutionary ideology from the outset. Odessa, a trading port on the Black Sea, was a major grain export port for southern Russia. However, the Russian Black Sea Fleet's previous actions—disguising themselves as merchant ships to enter the Mediterranean and intercepting Japanese and Chinese merchant ships in the Red Sea with cannons—enraged the British, who then ordered the blockade of the Turkish Straits, effectively blocking Odessa's grain export trade.

As a trading port, Odessa lost its trade, and the market immediately became depressed. In addition, many farmers near Odessa were on the verge of bankruptcy because they could not export grain to pay off their debts. The vigorous rise of workers' movements in various places on May Day also filled Odessa with crisis. At this time, Russian officials once again used their usual tricks, blaming the problem on Jews and trying to eliminate the risk of workers' uprising with an anti-Semitic campaign.

However, the Jews in Odessa were prepared this time. They had maintained contact with the workers' groups in Odessa, and when anti-Semitism emerged, they immediately launched a workers' strike against the monarchical autocracy. Although the striking workers failed to unite with the revolutionary sailors due to the obstruction of the Mensheviks, it triggered a further workers' strike movement throughout Russia. At this time, St. Petersburg had no time to concern itself with the war in the Far East; their attention was entirely focused on the potential nationwide revolution.

Chapter 482 Each Has Their Own Worries

For Yuan Shikai and the Beiyang clique, the successful recapture of Outer Mongolia and advance into Upper Udinsk by the Wuhan army was not good news. This caused the Beiyang clique, which had risen to prominence in this war, to be suppressed by Wuhan once again.

In the previous battles in Zhangjiakou, Shanhaiguan, Jinzhou and other places, the Beiyang Army could use its participation as an excuse to claim credit for itself. In any case, ordinary people had limited access to information, and many people could not tell who contributed how much effort in the battle. They only knew that the battle was led by Yuan Shikai, so naturally the credit should belong to the Beiyang Army.

However, this attack on Outer Mongolia and Verkhovna Udinsk had absolutely nothing to do with the Beiyang Army, not even logistics. Because this distinction was so clear, it was easy for people to see that this major battle had nothing to do with the Beiyang Army; it was entirely a battle supported by Wuhan alone.

The fact that Wuhan was able to single-handedly accomplish such a major battle means that any intelligent person who thinks about it deeply will realize that Wuhan would not encounter much trouble in eliminating any force within the country. Even the Beiyang Army, which is considered the most powerful military group, may not be as strong as the Russian army in the Upper Udinsk region.

Previously, provinces like Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Guangxi, and Yunnan, which harbored a mentality of carving out their own territories, began to behave themselves in the face of Wuhan's formidable offensive capabilities. They had all previously believed that while they couldn't send troops to Beijing to defend the imperial court, neither Wuhan nor Yuan Shikai had the power to launch a large-scale invasion against them. Even if the Beiyang government obtained the position of Governor-General of Shaanxi and Gansu, they could only control a few key points like Lanzhou.

But now, Wuhan has shown the remote provinces of the country through this battle that even if they are one or two thousand kilometers away from Wuhan, Wuhan can still mobilize tens of thousands of troops for conquest. What they thought was a safe distance is actually not safe at all. As a result, the Beiyang clique, which had previously seemed to be enjoying great success, began to decline in momentum again, and calls for peaceful constitutional reform suddenly became louder.

Previously, although there had been calls for constitutional reform, there was a strong implication that it would be used by force at the slightest disagreement. In reality, the provinces hoped that the Beiyang government would take the lead in suppressing Wuhan, making constitutional reform a weapon to overwhelm Wuhan. However, now everyone has come to their senses. They realize that even if they joined forces with the Beiyang government, they might not be able to defeat Wuhan. Therefore, for the sake of safety, using a constitution to maintain domestic peace is the most beneficial thing for everyone.

The shift in domestic public opinion was indeed a major blow to Yuan Shikai. Although he would not fall for the tricks of these local forces and would not actually step forward to fight Wuhan by force, he did approve of the path of uniting various local forces to suppress Wuhan. He knew very well that the Beiyang Army alone was not enough to suppress Wuhan, and without suppressing Wuhan, he could not keep his leadership position in the State Council.

Although he betrayed Emperor Guangxu and the Empress Dowager, and branded the Beiyang clique with his personal influence, Yuan Shikai himself had no intention of replacing them. He never transcended Li Hongzhang's vision, merely seeking to manipulate power without any intention of taking responsibility. Because Yuan Shikai lacked a broader perspective, although he obtained the position of Chairman of the State Council, aside from suppressing Wuhan in personnel matters, he failed to propose any truly compelling political ideas.

Yuan Shikai's style caused a change in the two basic forces that supported him. The first basic force was the group of students who had studied abroad, led by the young students who had studied in the United States. They were close to Yuan Shikai because the Qing court would not give them important positions, and only under Yuan Shikai could they display their knowledge.

However, the mainstream political ideology of the overseas-educated faction was to transform old China into a Westernized, modern China. Their previous accomplishments under Yuan Shikai were merely a matter of who else in the court could accomplish anything; it didn't imply any loyalty to him. After the Empress Dowager's faction and Manchu nobles, representing the stubborn conservatives, were purged from the central government, the overseas-educated faction hoped to go further and begin large-scale reforms of the entire country. However, at this time, Yuan Shikai again became the representative of the conservatives.

The second fundamental force consisted of the local elites within the Beiyang clique. These were mostly officers from peasant backgrounds and intellectuals from landlord families, who supported Yuan Shikai to ensure that traditional culture was not eroded by foreign ideas. Simply put, they wanted to learn Western military systems and weaponry to protect the gentry culture passed down from their ancestors. Among the conservatives, they were enlightened; yet, in the eyes of those who had studied abroad, they were unequivocally conservatives.

These two contradictory fundamental forces constituted the Beiyang clique, and only under the suppression of the Manchu court and Yuan Shikai's political maneuvering could these two forces maintain a balance. However, with the collapse of the Manchu court, the external pressure on the Beiyang clique suddenly eased, and internal contradictions began to emerge.

At this time, Wuhan was also a kind of external pressure for the Beiyang Group, but this pressure mainly came from the military. It was impossible to dismantle the Beiyang Group politically like the Manchu court had done before. Therefore, the main contradiction in the Beiyang Group now became the struggle for leadership between two internal forces.

Besides facing internal struggles, diplomatic issues also began to give Yuan Shikai increasing headaches. The Russian army's defeat in the Battle of Mukden, coupled with the Chinese army's victory in the capture of Verkhovna Udinsk, led all countries to believe that Russia's surrender was only a matter of time, and the issue of the distribution of postwar spoils began to be put on the agenda.

Britain, Germany, and the United States all believed they had provided significant support to China during the war, and therefore all sought to demand that China allocate some of its interests in Manchuria after the war. Britain did not make many demands regarding post-war Manchurian interests, but it sought to maintain the existing order in the Far East, believing that China should not seek Russian territories in the Far East, thus maintaining Russia's power there.

In contrast, Germany and the United States were much more pragmatic. Both powers desired to replace Russia's interests in the Far East. They were not concerned about whether China encroached on Russian territory in the Far East, but rather sought to extend their influence into Manchuria and even Outer Mongolia. Compared to Germany, the Americans seemed to have more ambitious plans. American capitalists hoped to acquire the Chinese Eastern Railway, a legacy of Russia, thereby completing a crucial piece of the railway network that encircles the world.

Compared to these three powers, Japan was even more ambitious. Before the war, Yuan Shikai believed that Japan's ambitions for Manchuria were no less than Russia's, and that once the Japanese entered Manchuria, it would be difficult to get them to withdraw. And indeed, this proved to be true. Before the Battle of Mukden was even completely over, the Japanese army clashed with the Beiyang Army. The Japanese troops occupying Mukden refused entry to the Beiyang Army, and a firefight ensued.

Although Duan Qirui and Feng Guozhang at the front suppressed the army's discontent and took the initiative to order the troops to leave Fengtian Railway Station, thus creating a situation of separation from the Japanese army along the South Manchurian Railway line, this incident still cast a shadow over Yuan Shikai's concerns about the situation after the Russians withdrew from Manchuria. He was very worried that after the Russians withdrew, there might be another Sino-Japanese war. He was unsure whether China would lose this war, but he was certain that the Beiyang Army would lose.

While Yuan Shikai was deeply troubled by internal and external troubles, Japan was also in a state of utter disarray. Before the war, Japan assessed that it could sustain the war for a year and a half, but in reality, it exhausted its domestic war reserves in less than eight months. After that, the resources to sustain the war all came from overseas imports, so loans became the lifeline to prolong the war.

However, while the previous three attempts at overseas fundraising had gone relatively smoothly, raising funds overseas became increasingly difficult for Japan after its victory in the Battle of Mukden. Britain refused to continue fundraising for Japan; according to London, this was because Japan had borrowed far too much, and British investors doubted Japan's ability to repay, thus refusing to allow Japan to continue raising war funds in London.

However, at the council of elders before the Emperor, Itō Hirobumi clearly pointed out, "...It is obvious that the British do not want us to completely drive the Russians out of the Far East. What Britain needs is a Russia with its power spread across Eurasia. If we completely defeat Russia in the Far East, then Russia, having lost the Far East, will only focus its energy on Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which will put enormous pressure on Britain."

If we consider the British intentions even more maliciously, wouldn't a Russia wounded in the Far East be a perfect tool to contain Japan? As long as Russia retains power in the Far East, Japan will have no chance of dominating the East Asian continent, and the balance of power in East Asia will be achieved…

Yamagata Aritomo and Ito Sukeyuki both agreed with Ito Hirobumi's view. Even the veterans who had previously strongly supported the Anglo-Japanese Alliance were now powerless to defend the sinister intentions of the British. However, compared to the other timeline, Japan's diplomatic environment was slightly better because China was now involved. This meant that Japan and China could reach an agreement on the issue of Russia, thereby resisting British diplomatic pressure.

At the elder statesman's meeting, Ito Sukeyuki questioned the army's actions, asking, "Folk Marshal Yamagata, what is the army thinking in preventing Chinese troops from entering Fengtian City? Is the army planning to take over from Russia and occupy Manchuria? Or is the army planning to go to war with China next?"

Yamagata Aritomo, his face expressionless, defended the Army, saying, "The Army simply did what it was supposed to do. The war isn't over yet, and even friendly forces shouldn't rashly enter areas occupied by our own troops. I don't think there's anything wrong with Oyama and his men's decision. As for the talk of war with China, the Army has absolutely no such intention; that's just Chinese exaggeration..."

Ito Sukeyuki was not fooled by Yamagata Aritomo's words. As the Prime Minister, he bore an unshirkable responsibility for this war. The army's current actions were clearly creating friction with the Chinese army. If anything went wrong, he would have to take the blame for the army.

Therefore, he continued his blunt questioning: "Refusing Chinese entry into our territory solely on the grounds of a defense zone is insufficient. Fengtian is Chinese territory, even the Russians recognize that. Our country has no special interests in Fengtian. Now, refusing Chinese troops entry to Fengtian with such a flimsy reason has even led the British and Americans to question our intentions regarding the occupation of Manchuria. The army should clearly state its intentions, instead of creating war while fabricating lies here..."

Chapter 483 Pressure

After the Satsuma Rebellion, the Army's dominance over the Navy at the Council of Elders had officially collapsed. Although Yamagata Aritomo did not make any wrong decisions, the Army's actions genuinely infringed upon the interests of other parties. Even Emperor Meiji, who usually did not interfere in politics, unusually demanded at this Imperial Conference that the Army should be consistent in its words and deeds.

The reason why Ito Sukeyuki received overt and covert support from all sides at this meeting of elders was because everyone felt that the war could not continue. Although the war against Russia had won Japan unparalleled honor, marking the first time in history that a yellow race had defeated a white race, if the Chinese had not launched an attack on Udinsk, the international community would have attributed the victory of this war to Japan, because the victory in the Russo-Japanese War laid the foundation for the outcome of this war.

However, compared to the honors Japan gained, the price it paid was also quite heavy. If Japan had won the Sino-Japanese War without exhausting its strength, then although Japan saw the dawn of victory in this great war, its own combat capabilities were already on the verge of collapse.

Following the Sino-Japanese War, Japan encountered the Triple Intervention and the Liaodong Peninsula Indemnity. With China relatively weak, Japan ultimately extracted an additional 3000 million taels of silver from China, thus compensating for its losses. However, the China of today is not the China of the Sino-Japanese War era. In fact, the Japanese upper echelons have some difficulty understanding the current state of China.

In the past, although China maintained a soft stance towards foreign powers, at least domestically there was only one voice. The Manchu court, unable to stand firm against the great powers, could at least suppress various factions and maintain the framework of a unified dynasty. But in present-day China, almost all factions are speaking their own minds, and almost no one can represent China as the sole voice. Even the most powerful party, Wuhan, needs to go through discussions in the National Assembly before its proposals can be turned into a decision.

The past practice of foreign powers using the Manchu court to transform their demands into Chinese national policy is no longer viable. No local power is willing to shoulder this responsibility. The collapse of the Manchu court was due to the perception among various Chinese factions that it had become a foreign power and was completely incapable of protecting Chinese interests.

Therefore, even the Beiyang and constitutionalist forces, who were willing to maintain friendly relations with the great powers, were only willing to make some promises to the great powers in private, but refused to carry out orders in full accordance with the great powers' demands, because doing so would only make them face opposition from the Chinese people first, giving the Wuhan side an excuse to attack them.

Thus, although China is currently mired in internal and external troubles, including wars against Britain and Russia, and internal conflicts between revolutionaries, constitutionalists, and conservatives, making it seem as if China is on the verge of falling apart, the Chinese people have actually become more assertive in their stance on foreign wars.

This explains why the Sino-British Tibet issue could have been resolved diplomatically, but instead, a war broke out between China and India; and why Russia only wanted to take the opportunity to blackmail China, but instead, a war between Russia and China ensued.

Both wars were utterly absurd to the Japanese, as China could gain absolutely nothing from them. Even if it had defeated Britain and Russia, it would have only resulted in Britain and Russia recognizing China's territorial sovereignty—an outcome that could have been achieved through diplomatic negotiations. Ultimately, both wars severely depleted China's strength, yielding nothing more than international humiliation for the two major powers, Britain and Russia.

But it was precisely this stubbornness of China that deterred the Japanese from making any rash moves. If the Chinese had interpreted the Chinese army's prevention of entry into Fengtian (Shenyang) as a harbinger of Japanese invasion and thus fueled another Sino-Japanese war, then aside from the future of China, Japan would likely have to relinquish all the honors it had gained in the war.

After all, China and Japan are not equal in their positions in the international order. Japan is a newly established power, while China is prey being besieged by the powers. In other words, China can't get any worse. But if Japan falls from its position as a power, then the achievements of the Meiji Restoration over the past forty years will have been completely wasted.

So, is it possible for China to dethrone Japan from its position as a great power? The answer is yes, it does. As a continental nation, as long as China refuses to concede defeat, it can mobilize an inexhaustible supply of resources, especially its virtually limitless human resources. Russia, with a population less than a third of China's, was dragged down by China in this war; how much more so would Japan?

Moreover, Japan has already exhausted its strength, while China has grown stronger with each battle. At least during the Boxer Rebellion, China had no army capable of fighting the Russians, let alone one that could reach Siberia. But now, even the Beiyang Army of China can hold its own against the Russians for several rounds.

Given Britain's desire to balance the situation in Northeast Asia and the ambiguous stances of other powers, could Japan really fight another war with China without any worries and thus seize its interests in Manchuria without hindrance? Apart from the army, which was unwilling to consider the question, almost all other parties came to the negative conclusion.

Yamagata Aritomo was thus completely isolated. At this Imperial Conference, he lost the support of the Choshu faction and could only represent the army. In the end, Yamagata Aritomo had to make concessions, stating that he would demand that Ōyama Iwao withdraw from Fengtian City, allowing Chinese to occupy Fengtian, in order to ease the conflict between the Japanese and Chinese armies.

Although Ito Hirobumi supported Ito Sukeyuki at the Imperial Conference, after leaving the palace, he still invited Ito Sukeyuki to ride in the same carriage with him. In the carriage, he asked Ito, "The main purpose of forcing the army to make concessions on the Manchurian issue is to ease Sino-Japanese relations and end this war as soon as possible."

However, Prime Minister Ito, have you already drafted a peace agreement for Japan, Russia, and China after the war? The nation has paid such a huge price; if it doesn't receive a corresponding return, the people will not be content with that…”

Ito Hirobumi's warning in the carriage also gave Ito Sukeyuki a deep headache. As the war progressed, many pre-war predictions had deviated from the truth. The pre-war assumption by the army and navy that they could force Russia to completely admit defeat, as in the Sino-Japanese War, was now impossible. Russia could admit defeat in the Far East, but it would not admit defeat against Japan or China. This meant they could not force St. Petersburg to compensate Japan with something of greater value than the Far East.

The war had already cost 9 million yen. According to some newspaper commentators, Russia should pay Japan 20 billion yen in reparations for its defeat, so that Japan could recover its war losses and provide additional funds for future reconstruction. These newspapers proposed such an astronomical figure in reparations based on the Qing Dynasty's war reparations to Japan during the First Sino-Japanese War.

Although Ito Sukeyuki knew, and any rational Japanese person should know, that the Russians could not possibly pay such a sum of reparations—20 billion yen—it would be better to continue the war, in which case Japan would have to surrender to Russia first. However, the people were quite fervent in their support for this amount of reparations, as if they would send the Imperial Army to St. Petersburg if the Russians did not pay.

It could be said that at this point, the pressure on the cabinet, specifically on Ito Sukeyuki, to reap the rewards of the war outweighed the pressure of winning the war itself. At the beginning of the war, the public's expectations were not high; they simply wanted to drive Russia back and secure Japan's interests on the Korean Peninsula. However, the overwhelming victory in the naval battle against Russia led the public to have excessively high expectations for the war.

Just as the Japanese navy almost completely annihilated the Beiyang Fleet during the Sino-Japanese War, allowing Japan to make demands on the Qing government that even the Japanese felt were somewhat excessive, in the current naval conflict between Japan and Russia, the Russian navy has also almost completely lost its main force. The Black Sea Fleet and the remaining Baltic Fleet combined are no match for the Japanese Combined Fleet. Therefore, the Japanese feel that Russia should honestly admit defeat like the Qing Dynasty.

If the Ito Cabinet cannot obtain a war reward from the Russians that satisfies the people based on such a victory, then there must be someone in the cabinet who has betrayed Japan's interests. This is the most basic thought of the people.

The reason Ito confronted Yamagata at the Imperial Conference was that he genuinely couldn't find a postwar agreement that would satisfy the people. Furthermore, if the army further expanded the war in Manchuria, he would be even more at a loss. Therefore, he decided to simply argue with Yamagata in front of the Emperor and other elder statesmen, or, if that failed, simply abandon the project and leave Yamagata to clean up the mess left to the army.

However, it is clear that Yamagata was not really out of his mind. In order to save face for the army, he did not want to escalate the Manchurian War. He also realized that Japan was about to be unable to continue fighting. If he allowed Oyama and others to provoke a war between Japan and China, the army might have to bear all the responsibility. Therefore, Yamagata made concessions to Ito.

Although the Ito Cabinet achieved a minor victory over Yamagata at the Imperial Conference, it did not change the predicament faced by the Ito Cabinet. In particular, the warning given to Ito by Ito Genro on his way out of the palace made Ito realize that if his cabinet could not properly resolve the peace agreement for this war, then all the honors he had gained in this war might be lost the moment the peace agreement was signed.

Faced with this thorny situation, Ito realized the deep shortage of naval talent. Saigo Genro's previous refusals to form a cabinet weren't necessarily due to his brother's issues, but rather because the Satsuma faction genuinely lacked capable political leaders. While the Choshu faction could stabilize the situation through civilian bureaucrats like Ito, the Satsuma faction simply didn't have such figures, and they couldn't believe Ito would genuinely support the navy.

When the time came, Ito could only convene a meeting with Kawahara, Togo, and other members of the Naval General Staff for deliberation. Kawahara and Togo, equally concerned about Ito's anxieties regarding the postwar agreement, were at a loss for solutions. Kawahara ultimately offered only a half-baked solution, suggesting to Ito, "Demanding 20 billion yen in reparations from the Russians is clearly unrealistic. I think we should ultimately start with demands for territorial concessions to lower the public's excessively high expectations for Russian reparations..."

Chapter 484 August

Kawahara Yoichi's suggestion does seem feasible, but no one can guarantee whether the people will accept it. Togo Masamichi is quite worried that the army will interfere. "Crosting large tracts of land from Russia to divert the people's attention from the reparations is indeed a way, but will the army let us do such a thing so easily?"

The army certainly wouldn't let the honor of this great war be so easily bestowed upon them. Ito Sukeyuki thought to himself that the army's ambitions were no longer satisfied with the pre-war goal of taking control of the Korean Peninsula, but rather they wanted to extend their reach into Manchuria and seize the interests that Yamagata had been talking about as part of the Japanese Empire.

Therefore, after a moment's hesitation, Ito asked Kawahara and Togo: "If the army sets its sights on Manchuria as a target for ceding territory, attempting to replace Russia's interests in Manchuria, such as the Kwantung Leased Territory and the South Manchurian Railway, will the Chinese make concessions?"

While Kawahara Yoichi was still deep in thought, Togo Masamichi blurted out, "Of course the Chinese wouldn't agree. The Chinese also paid a heavy price in this war. Their domestic public opinion is constantly focused on reclaiming the various rights and interests that Russia seized, including the ownership of the Kwantung Leased Territory and the Chinese Eastern Railway."

If we were to demand that Russia transfer its interests in Manchuria to Japan now, it would mean that China would gain almost nothing from this war. In the past, China might have simply swallowed its anger, because the Manchus were more worried about war with us, which would only further weaken their control over China.

However, in China today, the Manchu rule has actually collapsed, but the various forces have not yet determined the final victor. At this time, whoever shows weakness to the outside world will lose political points. Therefore, no force will advocate accepting that Japan inherit Russia's interests in Manchuria after the war, as this would cause them to lose the support of their domestic people.

Unless we can help one power suppress the others, we shouldn't expect any power to accept the post-war distribution of spoils on behalf of China. However, that would be tantamount to going to war with most of China, which we are not capable of in our current situation. Moreover, the China issue has always been a common issue for all the great powers. If we want to further interfere in China's internal affairs, we will probably first have to face the dissatisfaction of other great powers.

To put it another way, our only option now is the Beiyang Army, but Yuan Shikai might not be willing to be completely tied to our country. We've invested so much in the army, yet on the Fengtian issue, didn't Yuan Shikai still seek arbitration from Britain, the United States, and Germany?

Ito Sukeyuki agreed with Togo's view that the army did not want to be constrained by the cabinet, but wanted the cabinet to take the blame for the army's actions. Ultimately, wasn't it just because the army controlled the Imperial General Headquarters? The army was now trying to use the Imperial General Headquarters, which was personally commanded by the Emperor, to suppress the cabinet's interference in the military's actions. The Mukden Incident seemed more like a test by the army than an act of defiance by the officers and soldiers below.

Before becoming Prime Minister, Ito Sukeyuki naturally viewed the cabinet from the military's perspective, believing that the cabinet had no right to interfere with the actions of the General Headquarters, which represented the Emperor's supreme command. But now that he was in that position, he felt that the Emperor's supreme command, independent of the national government, was indeed a destabilizing factor, and that the army was using the Emperor's supreme command to hold the government hostage.

Ultimately, the Emperor's supreme command authority was originally a backdoor left for the Choshu and Satsuma factions to suppress the Meiji government. However, the Satsuma Rebellion pushed Satsuma out of the Emperor's inner circle, allowing the army to firmly suppress the navy. The Choshu faction then used the Emperor's supreme command authority as their own authority to oppose the civilian government.

During the Sino-Japanese War, Ito Hirobumi consolidated the powers of the Cabinet and the Imperial General Headquarters, thus preventing any interference between the Emperor's command and the government's authority. However, in this war, although Ito Sukeyuki held the position of Prime Minister, the Army seized the power of staff at the Imperial General Headquarters, escalating the conflict between the Imperial General Headquarters and the Cabinet.

Fortunately, Ito Sukeyuki was still the representative of the navy, so he could have a voice within the Imperial General Headquarters; otherwise, Yamagata could have directly used the issue of interfering with the Emperor's command to create a protracted dispute with the Cabinet. During the war, the Imperial General Headquarters clearly held a higher position, and the Cabinet could only be led by the nose by the Imperial General Headquarters.

Seeing Ito frowning in thought, Kawahara thought for a moment and suggested, "Or we could make a deal with the army, for example, by supporting the army's annexation of Korea in exchange for the army no longer acting on its own."

After pondering for a long time, Ito finally nodded and said, "That is indeed one way. Yamagata keeps saying that Korea is Japan's lifeline. Now that we have driven Russian forces out of the Korean Peninsula, the army will definitely seek to completely annex Korea. However, if we support the army's annexation of Korea, it means that the army's continental policy has taken a big step forward. What should we do next to prevent the army from continuing to push forward with the continental policy?"

Faced with this problem, both Kawahara and Togo kept quiet. They were only trying to solve the immediate problem, and they simply lacked the imagination to think about what would happen next.

The conversation had to end, as Ito Sukeyuki himself hadn't figured out the post-war path. He had to accept the fact that while the army's continental policy seemed impractical, it could at least guide the army's progress, while the navy, apart from the Southern Expansion Theory, couldn't find a second way forward. Without a direction, the navy, now that the war was over, was at a loss for what to do.

As he saw the two men off from his office, Ito couldn't help but call them back and instruct them, "Get Nobuyoshi back to Japan as soon as possible. He can't stay in India forever..."

After leaving the Prime Minister's official residence, Kawahara and Togo returned to the Shinagawa Building together by carriage. In the carriage, Togo finally couldn't help but say to Kawahara, "Prime Minister Ito's trust in Nobuyoshi is truly enviable."

Looking at the street scene passing by outside the carriage, Kawahara seemed a little distracted as he replied, "After all, Shinji always manages to find a solution. If Shinji were here today, the conversation wouldn't have ended without any results, would it?"

Togo could only nod slightly. On such political issues, Hayashi Shin-yi was indeed more farsighted than others, at least ensuring that Ito Genryu wouldn't be led by the nose by the army. At this time, Ito Genryu was under the greatest pressure. If he made even the slightest mistake, the army would take away most of the honor in this war. No wonder Ito Genryu was thinking about Hayashi Shin-yi at this moment.

On July 22, after losing two-fifths of Verkhovinsk, the governor of Verkhovinsk, Kharchenko, Colonel Krochaev, and Colonel Ivanov, along with military and political officials in Verkhovinsk, formally handed over the surrender document to Cai E. Nearly 27,000 Russian troops in the city laid down their arms.

On the same day, Cai E ordered Lan Tianwei to lead his troops to support Tuluntayevo, launching a counterattack against Irkutsk from there. At the Selenga River bridge in Tuluntayevo, the 1st Division and the 7th Division, which had come to support them, coordinated their efforts. After cutting off the bridge passage, they encircled and annihilated the Russian troops who had already crossed the river, eliminating more than 6,000 Russian soldiers in one fell swoop.

This battle shattered the morale of the Russian reinforcements coming from the Irkutsk direction. Over the next three days, the Russian army lost the towns of Mesovsk and Tankhoi, retreating all the way to...

In Baikal, if the Chinese army hadn't stopped at Tankhoi village, the Russian army would have already planned to abandon the town altogether.